Nigeria is regarded as the giant of Africa, whatever effects it negatively or positively affects the entire Africa.
This is so because the country is the military power base of the continent. It is also regarded as the economic power base of the nation because it is the largest producer and exporter of crude oil.
With an estimated population of over two hundred million people, it is believed that Nigeria houses over one-fifth of the black race. Traditionally elections are very volatile in Nigeria until 2015 when the incumbent lost and he relinquished power without any drama.
Again Nigeria is marching towards another election the tempo is already high, if the election happens peacefully it will a plus and an image bolster for the African continent. We shall examine possible adverse consequences such refuge crisis, increase in security challenges and economic meltdown should the election end in a fiasco.
Our world is already faced with the refugee crisis, with Africans leaving the continent in droves. One of the consequences of an election gone bad is a civil war that will displace hundreds of millions of people.
This can only lead the avoidable migrant crisis, Nigerians will be forced to leave their countries and go into neighboring African countries. The route to Africa through the Sahara desert that has claimed lots of lives will become busier. This is so because Nigerians in their thousands are known to ply that dangerous route yearly, many Nigerians are known to have died trying to cross over to Europe in search of greener pastures in times of peace the number that will use the desert during the time of crisis, is better left unimagined.
This unwanted movement of people will be aided by the very porous borders of African nations and vague immigration laws. That is mostly enforced by corrupt government officials that sell anything to the highest bidder for amounts next to nothing.
Breakdown of law and order is one of the first signs of political crisis. People will be killed for sports, people will be maimed and mutilated with permanent disabilities for fun, young women will be raped without consequences and fathers will give up the divinity and sanctity of their daughters to gun-wielding men for protection.
Like Thomas Hobbes postulated life will become "short and brutish". African countries that share boundaries with Nigeria both closely and remotely will get a fair share of these security challenges because the good, the bad and the criminally terrible will join during the migration. The criminal minded will migrate to their host nations with their criminality and they will continue their crimes in their host nation.
A crisis in Nigeria will shake the root of the peace currently enjoyed by most African nations and the entire global community.
Nigeria is the largest exporter of crude oil on the African continent. Its trade partners in America, Europe, Asia, and Africa will get a share of the economic crisis. It is established in demand and supply principle in Economics that the market forces of demand and supply affect prices both negatively and positively.
A crisis in Nigeria that is the Largest producer of crude oil in Africa and the sixth largest in the world will reduce the supply of crude oil to the global market because explorers will abandon oil fields.
This reduction in supply will force prices of crude oil to go up in the international market. This will also lead to an increase in the cost of petroleum products in markets around the globe.
Aside from affecting global crude oil prices, a crisis in Nigeria will also affect the global agricultural market.
The country is the leading producer of an exporter of Cocoa, oil palm, groundnut, and many other agricultural products.
A crisis in Nigeria Will also affect the supply and subsequently prices of these agricultural products in the local market across the world.
Global leaders and readers should be mindful that this article is in no way an attempt to prophesy doom, it is just a wake-up call to the global community on the implications of a full-blown political crisis in the economic, political, population power base of Africa.
~~Written by Olaniyi Odina, a vibrant and young public affairs commentator from Oriade LGA,Osun.
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